Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
